The latest, revised version of this introduction can be found in English at http://web4health.info/en/aux/homo-sapiens-future.html

The Future of Homo Sapiens

The human species started its existence between 110 000 and 50 000 years ago. Its development diverged from the apes about 5 million years ago.

The earth has been capable of supporting life for about 3 billion years, and is expected to continue being able to support life for about 5 billion years in the future. Thus if we view the period of being able to support life as 24 hours, then we are now about 9 o'clock in the morning, humans diverged from the apes about a minute ago and the human species started to exist 1-2 seconds ago.

The average life time of a species on earth is a few million years. Every year, thousands of species cease to exist and thousands of new species are created. Will thus the human species cease to exist in a few million years, like most other animals? If so, why, and what will replace it? Or are humans so unique and different from other species, that experience from other species cannot be applied, and humans may continue to exist for a much longer time?

Note: This paper discusses many ethically and politically sensitive issues, and some readers will probably be offended by this. But the goal is not to give any views on what is right and wrong, what should be permitted or forbidden. The goal is only to discuss what will probably happen in the future.

How a Species Ceases to Exist

To discuss this issue, one must first discuss which processes causes a species to cease to exist. Some such processes are:

The species is specialized to a natural habitat, which ceases to exist. The risk for this is rather low for the human species, because of its high adaptability to changing environments.A cosmic catastrophe like a giant meteorite will certainly kill most people on earth, but some will probably continue to exist, and will rapidly proliferate again.
The species is out-competed by another species. There is today no existing specifes which might threaten the human species. There is a possibility that a new species, based on humans, may replace the human species, but then humans do not stop to exist, just continue in another form.
The species gradually evolves, through natural selection, into a new species. Such evolution is however slow for such a large and wide-spread species as the human. It usually occurs in small, geographically isolated environments.
The species is exterminated by a ruthless predator. This is the way the ruthless predator homo sapiens has exterminated almost all big animals on the earth. Also within the human species, races have been exterminated or nearly exterminated by other races, for example the Australian aborigines. Such extermination is nowadays labelled "genocide" and is very much disapproved. No non-human predator threatening humans is likely to evolve, expect possibly a new species based on the human species.
The human species might also be threatened by a new virus or bacteria, but experience indicates that it is unlikely that such a threat will appear, such that we will not be able to combat it or that the whole species will be exterminated by such a threat.

How a New Species Can Replace Homo Sapiens

A new species, to replace Homo Sapiens, might be created in different ways:

By natural selection in a limited population. This is not very probable, since the tendency to intermingle among all humans is very large.
By explicit creation through breeding or genetic manipulation of Homo Sapiens. This is the most likely alternative. When parents are given the option of creating better-than-anverage children, it can be expected that many parents will choose this option. Even if politicians talk a lot about the ethics of genetic manipulation, they will in practice probably not to be able to stop some people using this option.
By explicit creation through breeding or genetic manipulation of another species. But no such species very suitable for replacing humans exist.
By an artificually created species. This might even be based on computers and not on biology. However, we are very far for this option today. "Artificial intelligence" is a branch of computer science, but is results until now are very far from creating a species which can outcompete humans. No computer has the general adaptible intelligence of humans, nor can they even reproduce themselves.

How Homo Sapiens can Evolve

Homo Sapiens can evolve through natural selection or through breeding or genetic manipulation. Breeding and genetic manipulation is most probable for a few people in technically evolved countries.

Natural selection is most effective when many animals die before reproduction. Thus, natural selection is more effective in developing countries. In industrial countries, medical development allows most of those who would die to live and reproduce.

Will Homo Sapiens Deteriorate

Some people say that the lack of effective natural selection for humans in industrial countries will cause the human species to deteriorate, since natural selection is needed to keep a species healthy. As a simple example, the existence of spectacles would cause more people to be born near-sighted.

However, this is counteracted by immigration of people from less developed countries. This immigration is today so large, that it can probably counter the risk of deterioratin of the species as a whole.

Also, future use of genetic manipulation and intentional breeding can be expected to counteract degradation.

Genetic Manipulation and Artificial Breeding

Genetic manipulation and artificial breeding is today disliked, because it was used in earlier years by governments in questionable ways. Most known is the nazi ideas of killing or sterilization of "inferior people" like jews and people with mental illnesses. Also in non-nazi countries, enforced sterilization was common earlier, but is not done so much today.

The reason for this is that such government control is today not regarded as ethical, and also that the efficiency of such schemes is debatable. All schemes which reduce the genetic variation within the human species can cause more harm than value.

In spite of this, it is my belief that genetic manipulation and artificial breeding will be important in the future, but not done by the governments but by parents. Already, today, more and more pregnant women voluntarily screen for disabilities and genetic diseases of the faetus and choose abortion rather than giving birth to a child with a genetical illness.

This will probably become much more common in the future, with better medical and technical options of influencing the genes of future children. And this might create a race of superhumans, which might even become a new species threatening its creator.

Do You Agree

If you do not agree, or have more ideas on the future of homo sapiens, you are welcome to comment on this paper. Your comments may influence future versions of it. A forum for discussion is available.

References

There is not very much written about the future of Homo Sapiens. There are a large number of books about evolution and human evolution and about how humans were formed by evolution, and this is important for understanding what will happen in the future. Here are presentations of some such books:

Origins: The Emergence and Evolution of Our Species and Its Possible Future

By Richard E. Leakey and Roger Lewin.

ISBN 0-525-48013-7.

E. P. Dutton publishers 1977.

A detailed and interesting overview of all the stages of evolution of homo sapiens since the separation from the monkeys 5-7 million years ago.

The Third Chimpanzee: The Evolution and Future of the Human Animal

By Jared Diamond.

ISBN 0-06-018307-1.

HarperCollins publishers 1992.

A collection of essays, many of them give essential insight into how and why humans are as they are.

From DNA to ABC

By Joel Miller.

ISBN 91-972454-3-7.

BenTarZ Productions, 2003.

A collection of essays, many of them give interesting ideas on human development and human languages development. Are humans distinguished from the monkeys by the use of tools? But monkeys also sometimes use tools. Are human distinguished by building houses? But beavers and birds also build nests.

Miller claims that modern human society is a distinct new stage which he calls "civil society". I wonder if historians five hundred years from now will agree with this?

On the future, the author says that implanting of electronics inside the human body will be an important feature of how people live in the future. I agree with him, this is quite probable an area where major changes in our lifestyle will come in the future.

The Naked Ape, The Human Zoo and Intimate Behaviour

By Desmond Morris

These three books which give many interesting insights into how human behaviour is governed by our animal past.

Introduction to the issues